"If It Looks Like a User": Measuring Real-Time Moderation Effects via Social Media Simulation

Abstract

Agent-based social media simulators offer a controlled environment to study content moderation, yet their value hinges on how faithfully they reproduce real platform dynamics. We develop a calibrated extension of SimSoM, an agent-based model of information diffusion on social networks, grounded in a real-world dataset of online vaccine discourse during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach replaces ad-hoc parametrisations with empirically fitted distributions, optimised via CMA-ES (Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy) and validated against real data across temporal, distributional, and structural dimensions. Using this validated simulator, we provide three key contributions. First, we show that the calibrated model reproduces key statistical signatures of the empirical data, including activity distributions, post/reshare ratios, and temporal patterns. Second, we apply established misinformation-spreader detection and prevention methods to both empirical and simulated data, progressively removing top-ranked users and showing that the resulting decline in low-quality content is consistent across the two. Third, comparing static (retroactive) and dynamic (in-simulation) moderation across 30 network realisations, we show that static evaluation significantly overestimates the effectiveness of user bans for the most effective detectors: when moderation is applied in real time, compensatory resharing by the remaining users dampens the expected reduction in low-quality content, so static estimates should be read as an upper bound. These findings highlight the necessity of simulation-based evaluation for content moderation policies and contribute a reusable, empirically grounded simulation framework.