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HERMES: A Hybrid Ensemble for Head-and-Neck Tumor Segmentation, TN Staging, and Recurrence-Free Survival on PET/CT

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Do you know Kai Wang?You can claim authorship or link another user.Do you know Meixu Chen?You can claim authorship or link another user.Do you know Elie Nasr?You can claim authorship or link another user.Do you know Ryan Lanning?You can claim authorship or link another user.Do you know Moyed Miften?You can claim authorship or link another user.

Abstract

We present HERMES (Hybrid Ensemble for Radiotherapy-target segmentation, Malignancy staging, and Event-free Survival), a single containerized algorithm for the three HECKTOR 2026 subtasks: segmentation of the primary tumor (GTVp) and pathological lymph nodes (GTVn), radiological T/N staging, and recurrence-free survival (RFS), computed from a paired FDG-PET/CT scan and an electronic health record. A 10-fold ensemble of STU-Net Small networks produces the segmentation; the predicted mask then drives two downstream tasks. Rather than pass a generic radiomics vector to the staging models, we derive from the predicted masks a compact set of geometry features aligned with the size and number axes of AJCC/UICC 7th-edition radiological N/T staging. On internal cross-validation these features raise N-stage balanced accuracy from 0.691 to 0.720 (+0.030), our largest single design gain, at lower feature dimensionality. For prognosis we combine complementary deep and clinical risk experts in an equal-weight ensemble, and train one deep expert with a concordance-tracking survival loss of our own, whose value approximates the concordance index during training. Every component was selected on honest out-of-fold predictions under a regularization-oriented protocol, with no tuning on the public validation set, and deployed as two decorrelated submissions. On the HECKTOR 2026 validation leaderboard, HERMES achieved a weighted score of 0.6454 (Mean Dice 0.641, T balanced accuracy 0.580, N balanced accuracy 0.642, RFS C-index 0.679) and qualified for the testing phase. Team: AMC_HNC.

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Publication notes

Author note
12 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, conference